Tata Motors Ltd.
NSE: TMCVTata Motors Ltd.: A 30-second snapshot
Tata Motors Commercial Vehicles (TMCV) trades at ₹402.1, carrying a trailing PE of 48.8 against a forward PE of 18.3 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 44.1 — by far the highest leverage in the peer group. ROE stands at 26.1% but the 5-year revenue trajectory shows a 37.8% contraction, and the stock is 20.1% below its 52-week high. A commercial vehicle price hike of up to 2.5% effective July 2026 is the most recent operational headline.
P/E
48.8
Forward P/E
18.3
ROE
+26.1%
Debt / Equity
44.09
Profit Margin
+3.6%
Div. Yield
+1.0%
5Y ROE > 15%
3/5
5Y FCF > 0
3/5
Quality
35/100
News
8 headlines · 4 positive · 1 negative
Tata Motors announces price increase for commercial vehicles from July 2026 - Passionate In Marketing
Passionate In Marketing
Tata Motors CV Price Hike of Up to 2.5% From July 2026 - Autopunditz
Autopunditz
Tata Motors to raise CV prices by up to 2.5% from July 2026 amid sustained input cost pressures - Fortune India
Fortune India
Why did Tata Motors shares fall nearly 8% today? JLR outlook spooks investors | Business News - Hindustan Times
Hindustan Times
Tata Motors Rides India's Infra Wave but Costs Loom - marketscreener.com
marketscreener.com
Recent context
- ·Tata Motors announced a commercial vehicle price increase of up to 2.5% effective July 2026, citing sustained input cost pressures across multiple outlets on 18–19 June 2026.
- ·A single negative headline on 17 June 2026 (Hindustan Times) reported an approximately 8% single-day decline in Tata Motors shares attributed to JLR outlook concerns — a segment separate from TMCV but part of the parent entity.
- ·Mean analyst rating of 1.59 across 22 analysts (1–5 scale, lower = more constructive); the forward PE of 18.3 versus the trailing PE of 48.8 implies analyst consensus embeds a substantial earnings improvement in the near-term forecast period.
Strengths
- +ROE of 26.1% ranks third among the six Infrastructure sector peers, with BEL (27.6%) and CUMMINSIND (29.5%) the only peers higher; this return level is above the group median despite the elevated leverage base.
- +Trailing PE of 48.8 is the second-lowest in the peer group (LT: 36.0, BEL: 51.6, CUMMINSIND: 68.9, ABB: 98.8, CGPOWER: 124.8), indicating TMCV is not the most expensively valued on earnings in the sector cohort.
- +Debt trend is classified as falling, and FCF was positive in 3 of the available measurement years, suggesting some trajectory toward deleveraging even if the absolute D/E of 44.1 remains high.
- +An announced commercial vehicle price hike of up to 2.5% from July 2026 is cited in response to input cost pressures, indicating the company is actively managing margin headwinds through pricing action.
Weaknesses
- −Debt-to-equity of 44.1 is the single largest identifiable structural risk — this leverage level is uncommon for a non-financial manufacturer and amplifies downside in a revenue or interest rate stress scenario.
- −Revenue contracted 37.8% and earnings declined 25.3% over the trailing 5-year period; the overall quality score of 14 ranks last (6th of 6) among infrastructure peers, with consistency score of 20 reflecting erratic capital efficiency historically.
- −Profit margin of 3.61% is thin; the wide gap between trailing PE (48.8) and forward PE (18.3) depends entirely on a significant earnings recovery materialising — a scenario that carries execution risk given current margin levels and rising input costs.
- −The 200-DMA is uncomputable due to insufficient price history (151 bars); the stock is 20.1% below its 52-week high, with near-term support levels identified at ₹399.4, ₹371.6, and ₹361.8.
Open questions
- ?Does the 5-year revenue contraction of 37.8% reflect structural demand loss in the commercial vehicle segment, or a cyclical trough that has since reversed — and what does the most recent quarterly data show?
- ?At a D/E of 44.1 with a falling debt trend, how many years at current FCF generation would it take to reach a leverage level more typical of industrial manufacturers, and how sensitive is that trajectory to interest rate changes?
- ?The forward PE of 18.3 is less than half the trailing PE of 48.8 — what specific earnings assumptions underpin analyst consensus, and how does the July 2026 CV price hike factor into those models?
- ?TMCV ranks last on quality score (14 vs. peer median ~44) yet third on ROE in the Infrastructure peer group — does the quality gap reflect accounting or governance concerns, or primarily the leverage and margin volatility observed historically?
Peer comparison: Infrastructure
Ranks 6 of 6 on quality| Symbol | Name | P/E | ROE | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TMCV | Tata Motors Ltd.You're viewing | 48.8 | +26.1% | 14 |
| Industry avg | across 5 peers | 76.0 | +23.4% | 47 |
| CUMMINSIND | Cummins India Ltd. | 68.9 | +29.5% | 69 |
| BEL | Bharat Electronics Ltd. | 51.6 | +27.6% | 49 |
| ABB | ABB India Ltd. | 98.8 | — | 47 |
| CGPOWER | CG Power and Industrial Solutions Ltd. | 124.8 | +19.6% | 45 |
| LT | Larsen & Toubro Ltd. | 36.0 | +16.9% | 24 |
Technical state
Current price
₹402.10
SMA 50
₹397.28
SMA 200
—
RSI (14)
58.7 (neutral)
From 52w high
-20.1%
1Y return
—
3M return
-2.5%
50-DMA
Above
200-DMA
Below
Algorithmic support levels
Algorithmic resistance levels
Risk flags
- highDebt-to-equity of 44.1 is exceptionally elevated for a commercial vehicle manufacturer outside the financial sector, implying material sensitivity to interest rate movements and cyclical revenue downturns.
- highRevenue declined 37.8% and earnings declined 25.3% over 5 years; FCF was positive in only 3 of the available years and ROE exceeded 15% in only 3 years, indicating structurally inconsistent capital efficiency (consistency score: 20 of 100).
- mediumTrailing PE of 48.8 versus forward PE of 18.3 implies consensus is pricing in a very large near-term earnings step-up; profit margin stands at 3.61% and a July 2026 price hike of up to 2.5% is cited as a response to sustained input cost pressures, creating execution risk for that forecast.
- mediumPrice at ₹402.1 is 20.1% below the 52-week high; the 200-DMA is not computable (only 151 price bars available, below the 200-bar threshold); 3-month price change is -2.54%.
- lowOnly 151 bars of price history are available, making the 200-DMA and 1-year price change non-computable; sector peer 1-year price changes are also unavailable, limiting relative price performance comparison.
Cross-section contradictions
- Trailing PE of 48.8 ranks second-lowest among the 6 Infrastructure peers (BEL 51.6, LT 36.0, ABB 98.8, CGPOWER 124.8, CUMMINSIND 68.9), and ROE of 26.1% ranks third in the peer group, yet the stock sits 20.1% below its 52-week high while the peer quality score of 14 ranks last (6th of 6) — valuation and return metrics diverge from overall quality ranking.
- News sentiment is net positive (4 positive, 3 neutral, 1 negative across 8 articles) and a CV price hike announcement signals pricing power, yet the stock is down 20.1% from its 52-week high and -2.54% over 3 months — near-term price momentum has not reflected the constructive news flow.
For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. VivaTrades is not a SEBI-registered Investment Adviser or Research Analyst. Market data sourced from public feeds; consult a registered adviser before any investment decision.
Fundamentals & technicals: refreshed 25 Jun 2026 · refreshed daily at 01:00 IST
AI synthesis (narrative, snapshot, strengths/weaknesses, peer ranking): generated 21 Jun 2026 · rotates through NIFTY 500 every ~5 days