NMDC Ltd.
NSE: NMDCNMDC Ltd.: A 30-second snapshot
NMDC, a state-owned iron ore producer, trades at ₹93.21 — 43% above its level 12 months ago and 0.61% below its 52-week high — with a trailing PE of 11.64 and a forward PE of 9.96, a 3.75% dividend yield, and a quality score of 53 out of 100. Despite 15.9% 5-year revenue CAGR, the 5-year earnings CAGR stands at -6.5%, and debt-to-equity of 11.21 is rising, underscoring that top-line volume growth has not translated uniformly into bottom-line compounding.
P/E
11.6
Forward P/E
10.0
ROE
—
Debt / Equity
11.21
Profit Margin
+24.9%
Div. Yield
+3.8%
5Y ROE > 15%
4/5
5Y FCF > 0
3/5
Quality
48/100
News
7 headlines · 4 positive · 0 negative
NMDC Q4 Earnings Surge on Record Iron Ore Prices, Strong Demand - Whalesbook
Whalesbook
NMDC masters vein mining, now eyes critical minerals extraction - The Times of India
The Times of India
NMDC's iron ore output rose 16% in April, sales up marginally - The Hindu
The Hindu
NMDC April iron ore output rises 16% YoY; sales inch up amid mixed regional trends - CNBC TV18
CNBC TV18
NMDC opens special window for physical share dematerialization - scanx.trade
scanx.trade
Recent context
- ·Q4 results were reported as a surge on record iron ore prices and strong demand, with April iron ore output up 16% year-on-year and sales incrementally higher — though regional sales trends described as mixed.
- ·NMDC is reported to be expanding beyond iron ore into critical minerals extraction, signalling a strategic pivot that introduces execution risk alongside potential long-run diversification.
- ·The company has opened a special window for physical share dematerialisation (May 2026), a routine compliance step; broader news sentiment across 7 articles is 4 positive, 3 neutral, and 0 negative.
Strengths
- +Trailing PE of 11.64 and forward PE of 9.96 are the lowest among ranked peers in the Metals sector (ranked 1st of 6 on PE), indicating NMDC is priced at a meaningful discount to the sector peer group.
- +Revenue has compounded at 15.9% over 5 years, reflecting sustained volume and price realisation growth in iron ore — India's dominant domestic iron ore mining franchise.
- +Price has crossed above both the 50-DMA (₹83.90) and 200-DMA (₹76.88), with RSI at 66.03, consistent with recent upward price momentum over the 3-month (+12.9%) and 12-month (+43.05%) windows.
- +Dividend yield of 3.75% provides an income component; as a PSU, NMDC has historically maintained a dividend payout, which adds a yield floor to total return context.
Weaknesses
- −Debt-to-equity of 11.21 is substantially above typical non-financial metals sector norms and is on a rising trend, creating potential balance sheet strain if commodity prices weaken.
- −5-year earnings CAGR of -6.5% means that despite top-line growth, net earnings have contracted on a compounded basis — a 22-pp divergence from revenue growth that points to rising costs, capital expenditure, or margin pressure.
- −FCF was positive in only 3 of the available persistence years; combined with rising debt, this raises questions about the sustainability of the capital expenditure programme without further balance sheet leverage.
- −Quality score of 53 out of 100 (ranked 1st of 6 peers, but with a degraded peer dataset) reflects moderate fundamental quality; the consistency score of 18 signals uneven earnings and return outcomes over the multi-year period.
Open questions
- ?How much of the Q4 earnings surge reflects a structural improvement in NMDC's cost base versus a transient peak in iron ore spot prices — and what does the forward earnings trajectory look like if prices revert to their 5-year average?
- ?Given that D/E has risen to 11.21 on a rising trend, what is the intended capital structure for the critical minerals and vein-mining expansion, and at what commodity price level does debt serviceability become a concern?
- ?Does the 22-pp divergence between 5-year revenue CAGR (+15.9%) and earnings CAGR (-6.5%) reflect a permanent shift in the cost curve (labour, royalties, logistics), or is it a cycle-specific margin compression that could normalise?
- ?NMDC ranks 1st on PE among peers, but with an incomplete peer dataset — how does its valuation and quality profile compare against a broader universe of global iron ore and metals producers?
Peer comparison: Metals
Ranks 1 of 6 on quality| Symbol | Name | P/E | ROE | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NMDC | NMDC Ltd.You're viewing | 11.6 | — | 53 |
| Industry avg | across 5 peers | 23.8 | +20.5% | 38 |
| JSWSTEEL | JSW Steel Ltd. | 14.0 | +27.3% | 48 |
| TATASTEEL | Tata Steel Ltd. | 29.5 | — | 44 |
| HINDALCO | Hindalco Industries Ltd. | 14.8 | — | 38 |
| ADANIENT | Adani Enterprises Ltd. | 36.9 | +13.7% | 22 |
| DUMMYVEDL1 | Dummy Vedanta Ltd. 1 | — | — | — |
Technical state
Current price
₹93.21
SMA 50
₹83.90
SMA 200
₹76.88
RSI (14)
66.0 (neutral)
From 52w high
-0.6%
1Y return
+43.0%
3M return
+12.9%
50-DMA
Above
200-DMA
Above
Algorithmic support levels
Risk flags
- highDebt-to-equity ratio of 11.21 is substantially elevated for a non-financial metals company; debt trend is classified as rising, raising balance sheet questions if iron ore prices soften.
- medium5-year earnings CAGR of -6.5% contrasts with 5-year revenue CAGR of +15.9% — a 22-pp divergence indicating that incremental revenue has not compounded into bottom-line growth over this period.
- mediumFCF was positive in only 3 of the available persistence years alongside a rising debt trend, suggesting capital deployment is outpacing internally generated cash.
- lowPeer dataset contains one placeholder entry (DUMMYVEDL1) and four of five peers are missing both ROE and 1-year price-change data, making cross-sectional quality and return rankings unreliable for this run.
Cross-section contradictions
- Stock is up 43.05% over 12 months and sits 0.61% below its 52-week high, yet 5-year earnings CAGR is -6.5% — price appreciation has occurred against a backdrop of multi-year earnings contraction.
- News flow is uniformly constructive (4 positive, 0 negative out of 7 articles) and Q4 earnings were cited as a surge on record iron ore prices, yet the consistency score of 18 and negative long-run earnings trajectory signal that recent results may be cyclically driven rather than structurally improving.
For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. VivaTrades is not a SEBI-registered Investment Adviser or Research Analyst. Market data sourced from public feeds; consult a registered adviser before any investment decision.
Fundamentals & technicals: refreshed 25 Jun 2026 · refreshed daily at 01:00 IST
AI synthesis (narrative, snapshot, strengths/weaknesses, peer ranking): generated 15 May 2026 · rotates through NIFTY 500 every ~5 days