NHPC Ltd.
NSE: NHPCNHPC Ltd.: A 30-second snapshot
NHPC is a state-owned hydropower generator trading at ₹78.45, marginally above its 50-DMA (₹78.23) but below its 200-DMA (₹79.35). Trailing PE of 49.22 is the second-highest in its 6-peer Power sector cohort, while 5-year revenue and earnings CAGRs are both negative (-2.9% and -4.3% respectively). Debt-to-equity stands at 100.41 with a rising debt trend and FCF positive in only 2 of tracked years.
P/E
49.2
Forward P/E
12.0
ROE
—
Debt / Equity
100.41
Profit Margin
+28.3%
Div. Yield
+2.4%
5Y ROE > 15%
0/5
5Y FCF > 0
2/5
Quality
26/100
News
8 headlines · 1 positive · 1 negative
Paresh R Ranpara set to be next Director (Personnel) of NHPC - PSU Watch
PSU Watch
NHPC Limited's Holding in Subsidiary CVPPL Revised from 58.16% to 50.86% - scanx.trade
scanx.trade
PESB Shortlists 12 Executives for Director (Personnel) Post at NHPC; Interviews on May 12 - PSU Connect
PSU Connect
Sandeep Batra: Executive Director (Planning and EDM), NHPC Limited - Indian Infrastructure Magazine
Indian Infrastructure Magazine
MLA Tebin calls on NHPC directors, discusses job opportunities for project affected people - Arunachal Observer
Arunachal Observer
Recent context
- ·NHPC's holding in subsidiary CVPPL was revised down from 58.16% to 50.86%, as reported on May 11 2026, representing a reduction in its controlling stake in a key project vehicle.
- ·Personnel transitions are active: PESB shortlisted 12 executives for Director (Personnel) with interviews held May 12, and Paresh R Ranpara was named as the incoming appointment to that role.
- ·News flow over the past month totals 8 items (1 positive, 6 neutral, 1 negative), with sentiment broadly neutral — the CVPPL stake dilution was the sole item flagged negative.
Strengths
- +Profit margin of 28.3% reflects the inherent economics of low-variable-cost hydropower generation, where fuel is free and revenue is tied to long-term PPAs.
- +Dividend yield of 2.43% provides an income component in the absence of meaningful capital appreciation over the past 12 months (-3.54%).
- +Forward PE of 11.998 is substantially below the trailing PE of 49.22, suggesting analyst forecasts anticipate a significant earnings recovery relative to the current run-rate.
- +Stock is above its 50-DMA (₹78.45 vs ₹78.23) after a recent 3-month price change of +1.95%, indicating short-term price stabilisation following a prior drawdown.
Weaknesses
- −Debt-to-equity of 100.41 with a rising trend and FCF positive in only 2 of tracked years raises the question of whether long-term capital structure is sustainable without ongoing state support or tariff revisions.
- −Quality score of 20 out of 100 places NHPC last among its 6 tracked Power sector peers; ROE exceeded 15% in 0 of tracked years and the persistence consistency score is 0.
- −Revenue and earnings have contracted at 5-year CAGRs of -2.9% and -4.3% respectively, while the stock trades at a trailing PE of 49.22 — the valuation multiple has expanded despite declining fundamentals.
- −Price is below the 200-DMA (₹79.35) and down 3.54% over 12 months; the 52-week drawdown from peak is -12.99%.
Open questions
- ?Given the 5-year earnings CAGR of -4.3%, what specific regulatory, tariff, or project-completion factors underpin the forward PE compression to 11.998, and are those drivers visible in recent quarterly results?
- ?With debt-to-equity at 100.41 and rising, how does NHPC's debt-service coverage ratio compare to peers NTPC and POWERGRID, and what share of its debt matures in the next 3 years?
- ?The CVPPL stake dilution from 58.16% to 50.86% reduces NHPC's claim on a major project's cash flows — what is CVPPL's contribution to consolidated revenue, and how does this change affect future dividend capacity?
- ?Does the profit margin of 28.3% reflect a structurally advantaged cost base from existing hydro assets, or is it partly a function of capitalised interest and depreciation treatment that could compress as older assets are fully depreciated?
Peer comparison: Power
Ranks 6 of 6 on quality| Symbol | Name | P/E | ROE | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NHPC | NHPC Ltd.You're viewing | 49.2 | — | 20 |
| Industry avg | across 5 peers | 57.7 | +12.7% | 35 |
| POWERGRID | Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd. | 19.6 | — | 52 |
| ADANIPOWER | Adani Power Ltd. | 33.4 | +20.9% | 41 |
| NTPC | NTPC Ltd. | 21.9 | — | 31 |
| ADANIGREEN | Adani Green Energy Ltd. | 143.3 | +7.6% | 28 |
| ADANIENSOL | Adani Energy Solutions Ltd. | 70.1 | +9.7% | 23 |
Technical state
Current price
₹78.45
SMA 50
₹78.23
SMA 200
₹79.35
RSI (14)
43.6 (neutral)
From 52w high
-13.0%
1Y return
-3.5%
3M return
+1.9%
50-DMA
Above
200-DMA
Below
Algorithmic support levels
Algorithmic resistance levels
Risk flags
- highDebt-to-equity of 100.41 is exceptionally high, and the debt trend is classified as rising. FCF was positive in only 2 of tracked years, raising questions about long-term debt serviceability even within a capital-intensive sector context.
- highRevenue declined at a 5-year CAGR of -2.9% and earnings at -4.3%, while the trailing PE stands at 49.22. Peers NTPC (PE 21.87) and POWERGRID (PE 19.64) trade at roughly half NHPC's multiple despite NHPC showing persistent top- and bottom-line contraction.
- mediumQuality score of 20 ranks NHPC last (6th of 6) among tracked Power sector peers. ROE exceeded 15% in 0 of tracked years and the persistence consistency score is 0, indicating no sustained high-return-on-capital track record.
- mediumPrice is below the 200-DMA (current ₹78.45 vs SMA200 ₹79.35) and down 3.54% over 12 months. RSI of 43.58 is in neutral territory. The 52-week drawdown is -12.99%.
- lowAnalyst mean rating is null despite 7 analysts counted, so no consensus directional signal is available. Sector peer ROE and 1-year price change are null across all 5 peers, limiting comparative analysis.
Cross-section contradictions
- Trailing PE of 49.22 is elevated relative to sector peers, yet forward PE compresses sharply to 11.998, implying an earnings step-change of roughly 4x. This expectation is not corroborated by the 5-year earnings CAGR of -4.3%.
- NHPC's subsidiary CVPPL stake was recently revised down from 58.16% to 50.86% — a dilution of a core asset — while recent news flow has been predominantly neutral, suggesting the market may not have fully priced the strategic implications.
For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. VivaTrades is not a SEBI-registered Investment Adviser or Research Analyst. Market data sourced from public feeds; consult a registered adviser before any investment decision.
Fundamentals & technicals: refreshed 25 Jun 2026 · refreshed daily at 01:00 IST
AI synthesis (narrative, snapshot, strengths/weaknesses, peer ranking): generated 15 May 2026 · rotates through NIFTY 500 every ~5 days