National Aluminium Co. Ltd.
NSE: NATIONALUMNational Aluminium Co. Ltd.: A 30-second snapshot
National Aluminium Company (Nalco) is a government-owned aluminium and alumina producer trading at ₹434.20, up 136.57% over the past 12 months and within 2.46% of its 52-week high. The trailing PE of 12.98 is the lowest among its 6-stock metals peer group, and the ROE of 29.42% ranks second, though both metrics reflect conditions at a commodity-cycle high. The 5-year earnings growth of -16.7% and the fact that ROE exceeded 15% in only 2 of the tracked years underscore the cyclical character of these results.
P/E
13.0
Forward P/E
11.5
ROE
+29.4%
Debt / Equity
0.28
Profit Margin
+31.3%
Div. Yield
+1.9%
5Y ROE > 15%
2/5
5Y FCF > 0
3/5
Quality
61/100
News
5 headlines · 1 positive · 0 negative
Nalco Announces Superannuation of Executive Director (S&P) - The Globe and Mail
The Globe and Mail
MSCI rejig: Adani Energy, Nalco, MCX shares in; RVNL, Kalyan, Hyundai, SBI Card out - Business Today
Business Today
Hold National Aluminium Company: target of Rs 395: ICICI Securities - TradingView
TradingView
CDSL, Vodafone Idea, Federal Bank, Nalco shares: Key support levels, target price - Business Today
Business Today
Number of shareholders of National Aluminium Co. Ltd. – NSE:NATIONALUM - TradingView
TradingView
Recent context
- ·Nalco was added to the MSCI index in the May 2026 rejig (alongside Adani Energy and MCX), displacing RVNL, Kalyan, Hyundai, and SBI Card — a passive-flow event that coincides with the stock trading near its 52-week high.
- ·ICICI Securities published a note in May 2026 citing a price level of Rs 395 — approximately 9% below the current price of ₹434.20 — reflecting a more cautious view from at least one named broker in the coverage universe.
- ·The company announced the superannuation of its Executive Director (S&P) in June 2026; no financial impact is stated, but senior management transitions at a PSU commodity producer are a routine governance disclosure to track.
Strengths
- +Lowest PE in the 6-stock metals peer group at 12.98, with a forward PE of 11.52, against peers ranging from 14.24 (JSWSTEEL) to 39.46 (ADANIENT).
- +ROE of 29.42% ranks 2nd among the 6 peers tracked; profit margin of 31.32% is the highest visible in the peer set, reflecting Nalco's position as a low-cost alumina and aluminium producer.
- +Debt-to-equity of 0.277 is materially lower than the metals sector median; balance sheet capacity provides a buffer through a potential commodity downcycle.
- +MSCI index inclusion (May 2026) adds a structural passive-flow demand driver; the stock also ranks 2nd on qualityScore (56) among the 6 peers, above TATASTEEL (42), JSWSTEEL (45), HINDALCO (31), and ADANIENT (22).
Weaknesses
- −5-year earnings growth of -16.7% against a current 31.32% profit margin indicates the business has not compounded earnings over a full cycle; current margins likely sit near a cyclical apex.
- −ROE persistence is weak: the metric exceeded 15% in only 2 of the tracked years, and FCF was positive in only 3 years, giving a consistency score of 52 — below the threshold that would indicate a durable quality business.
- −Analyst mean rating of 3.27 across 11 analysts (1-5 scale, lower = more constructive) is among the more cautious readings relative to the +136.57% 1-year price move, suggesting sell-side coverage does not uniformly view the current price level as supported by fundamentals.
- −Debt trend is classified as rising; while D/E of 0.277 is low today, aluminium is a capital-intensive, cyclical business where leverage built near a peak can amplify downside in a downcycle.
Open questions
- ?Does the current 31.32% profit margin reflect a structural cost advantage in Nalco's captive bauxite and power supply chain, or is it primarily a function of the prevailing aluminium price cycle?
- ?How has Nalco's FCF and ROE historically behaved in the 2-3 years following a commodity price peak, and what is the typical drawdown in earnings during a correction cycle?
- ?Given that debt is trending upward while the business is at a cyclical high, what is management's stated capital allocation plan for the current cash generation — capex, dividends, or debt reduction?
- ?Does the MSCI inclusion represent a durable demand shift in the shareholder base, or a one-time rebalancing event that could partially reverse if the stock is excluded in a future review?
Peer comparison: Metals
Ranks 2 of 6 on quality| Symbol | Name | P/E | ROE | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NATIONALUM | National Aluminium Co. Ltd.You're viewing | 13.0 | +29.4% | 56 |
| Industry avg | across 5 peers | 24.1 | +27.9% | 42 |
| HINDZINC | Hindustan Zinc Ltd. | 19.1 | +76.9% | 72 |
| JSWSTEEL | JSW Steel Ltd. | 14.2 | +27.3% | 45 |
| TATASTEEL | Tata Steel Ltd. | 28.7 | +11.2% | 42 |
| HINDALCO | Hindalco Industries Ltd. | 19.0 | +10.3% | 31 |
| ADANIENT | Adani Enterprises Ltd. | 39.5 | +13.7% | 22 |
Technical state
Current price
₹434.20
SMA 50
₹406.94
SMA 200
₹309.80
RSI (14)
60.6 (neutral)
From 52w high
-2.5%
1Y return
+136.6%
3M return
+26.6%
50-DMA
Above
200-DMA
Above
Algorithmic support levels
Algorithmic resistance levels
Risk flags
- medium5-year earnings growth of -16.7% against a trailing profit margin of 31.32% signals a cyclical peak dynamic: margins are elevated now but earnings have declined over the full 5-year window, raising questions about sustainability through an aluminium downcycle.
- mediumROE exceeded 15% in only 2 of the tracked years and FCF was positive in only 3 years; the current 29.42% ROE and 31.32% profit margin likely reflect a commodity-price cycle high rather than durable business quality, as the consistencyScore of 52 and roeYearsAbove15 of 2 confirm.
- lowDebt trend is classified as rising; D/E of 0.277 remains low in absolute terms for a metals producer, but the upward trajectory in a cyclical industry warrants monitoring across future reporting periods.
- lowMean analyst rating of 3.27 across 11 analysts (1-5 scale, lower = more constructive) is the most cautious reading in the metals peer group relative to the magnitude of the 1-year price move of +136.57%.
- lowNews sample is sparse at 5 articles total; sentiment is predominantly neutral (4 neutral, 1 positive, 0 negative), limiting the reliability of news-driven risk assessment.
Cross-section contradictions
- Stock is up 136.57% over 12 months and trades only 2.46% below its 52-week high, above both the 50-DMA (406.94) and 200-DMA (309.80), yet 5-year earnings growth is -16.7% and ROE exceeded 15% in only 2 of the tracked years — the price run appears driven by a commodity-cycle tailwind rather than fundamental compounding.
- News sentiment is neutral (1 positive, 4 neutral, 0 negative across 5 articles) yet the stock has delivered +136.57% over 12 months — price appreciation has substantially outpaced the news flow visible in this sample.
For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. VivaTrades is not a SEBI-registered Investment Adviser or Research Analyst. Market data sourced from public feeds; consult a registered adviser before any investment decision.
Fundamentals & technicals: refreshed 25 Jun 2026 · refreshed daily at 01:00 IST
AI synthesis (narrative, snapshot, strengths/weaknesses, peer ranking): generated 1 Jun 2026 · rotates through NIFTY 500 every ~5 days