LUPIN
NIFTY200
Lupin Ltd.
Pharma · NSE
₹2,379.50
1Y+16.9%
P/E20.0
Fwd P/E22.8
ROE+26.9%
Margin+19.1%
D/E29.39
Div Yld+0.5%
Quality Score66/100
Analyst consensus:Constructive· 36 analysts
52-week range
₹1,837 – ₹2,494
From 52w high
-4.6%
RSI (14)
56.1
vs SMA 50 / 200
↑ 50 · ↑ 200
Lupin (NSE: LUPIN) trades at ₹2,330.40, above both the 50-DMA (₹2,320.09) and 200-DMA (₹2,107.82), with RSI at 49.38 (neutral). The stock is 6.56% below its 52-week high and has gained 13.2% over the past year. Trailing PE is 20.03 against a sector that includes peers trading at 40–69x, while ROE of 26.91% ranks first among the 6-stock peer group on available data.
Pros
- ✓ROE of 26.91% ranks 1st among the 6-peer pharma group where comparable data is available, and sits materially above Dr. Reddys (16.1%), the only other peer with a disclosed figure.
- ✓Quality score of 70 ranks 1st in the peer group (peers range 30–54), indicating relatively stronger composite fundamental quality on the scoring model used.
- ✓Trailing PE of 20.03 is the second-lowest in the peer group, with only Dr. Reddys (18.96) trading at a lower multiple against peers at 23.9x to 69.4x.
- ✓Price is above both the 50-DMA and 200-DMA simultaneously, and the 52-week drawdown is a contained -6.56%, with nearest support identified at ₹2,260.30.
Cons
- ✗ROE persistence is weak: only 1 of the available historical years recorded ROE above 15%, making the current 26.91% figure difficult to confirm as durable rather than cyclical or base-effect driven (consistency score: 31/100).
- ✗Free cash flow was positive in only 3 of the available persistence years, and the debt trend is classified as rising — together these limit the financial flexibility implied by the headline profitability metrics.
- ✗USFDA issued 3 observations after inspecting the Somerset facility in April 2026; unresolved regulatory observations at a US manufacturing site represent a known overhang on the US generics revenue stream.
- ✗The 5-year earnings growth of 89% reflects recovery from a depressed base (profit margin now 19.07%); the forward PE of 22.78 exceeds the trailing PE of 20.03, meaning current pricing embeds continued earnings expansion that is not yet visible in historical persistence data.
Recent context
- ·Q4 FY26 profit rose approximately 90% YoY and management announced the highest-ever dividend, yet shares declined on results day — indicating market focus may have shifted to forward guidance or US business sustainability rather than the reported quarter alone.
- ·Lupin launched Dapagliflozin + Metformin extended-release tablets in the US (April 2026) and signed a deal to expand into eye care via VISUfarma, extending its US generics pipeline and therapeutic diversification.
- ·Lupins US arm settled an antitrust lawsuit with Humana for $30 million (April 2026); this resolves a known legal liability but also confirms the US business has been operating under legal overhang that is now partially cleared.
Questions to ask yourself
- ?Is the jump in ROE and profit margin over the past 1-2 years a structural improvement in Lupins US generics franchise, or does it reflect one-time factors such as a product exclusivity window or base-effect recovery from prior regulatory disruptions?
- ?How material is the Somerset USFDA facility to current US revenue, and what has been the historical pattern of resolution timelines and revenue impact when Lupin has received FDA observations at other sites?
- ?Given that debt trend is rising and FCF was positive in only 3 of the available years, what is the intended use of incremental leverage — organic capacity expansion, acquisitions such as VISUfarma, or working-capital requirements?
- ?Does the gap between trailing PE (20.03) and the sector median (peers range 23.9–69.4x) reflect a durable valuation discount tied to regulatory risk and earnings inconsistency, or has the market not yet repriced the improvement in profitability metrics?
PE
20.0
Forward PE
22.8
ROE
+26.9%
Profit margin
+19.1%
D/E
29.39
Dividend yield
+0.5%
Quality score
70/100
ROE 5y above 15%
1/5 yrs
FCF 5y positive
3/5 yrs
Analyst consensus2.06 · 36 analysts(1–5 scale, lower = more constructive)
For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. VivaTrades is not a SEBI-registered Investment Adviser or Research Analyst. Market data sourced from public feeds; consult a registered adviser before any investment decision.Analysis generated 11 May 2026.