Indian Oil Corporation Ltd.
NSE: IOCIndian Oil Corporation Ltd.: A 30-second snapshot
Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) is a state-owned oil refining and marketing company trading at ₹140.24 with a trailing PE of 4.54x and a dividend yield of 7.13%. Q4FY26 net profit surged 57–81% year-on-year, yet the stock trades below both its 50-DMA (₹141.68) and 200-DMA (₹151.32), 24.85% off its 52-week high. The company carries a debt-to-equity of 58.4 and has generated FCF in only 2 of the available fiscal years.
P/E
4.5
Forward P/E
7.9
ROE
+21.0%
Debt / Equity
58.45
Profit Margin
+5.4%
Div. Yield
+7.1%
5Y ROE > 15%
2/5
5Y FCF > 0
2/5
Quality
49/100
News
8 headlines · 5 positive · 1 negative
Indian Oil Corporation Limited Just Recorded A 21% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next - simplywall.st
simplywall.st
Indian Oil Q4 net profit jumps 57% on strong margins; declares 12.5% dividend - CNBC TV18
CNBC TV18
IOCL's Q4FY26 consolidated net profit up 81%, announces final dividend of Rs 1.25 - Moneycontrol.com
Moneycontrol.com
Indian Oil Corp Ltd stock (INE242A01010): Q4 profit surges 76% to Rs 2,100 Cr - AD HOC NEWS
AD HOC NEWS
BPCL, HPCL and IOC shares soar up to 6%. Here are two big triggers - The Economic Times
The Economic Times
Recent context
- ·Q4FY26 consolidated net profit rose 57–81% year-on-year (multiple reports across Moneycontrol, CNBC TV18) with a declared final dividend of ₹1.25 per share, and a 21% EPS beat versus analyst estimates per Simply Wall St (May 2026).
- ·IOC shares alongside BPCL and HPCL rose up to 6% in late May 2026 (Economic Times, May 25), with two sector-level triggers cited — consistent with PSU oil marketing company moves tracking crude pricing and government policy signals.
- ·Mean analyst rating of 2.54839 across 31 analysts (1–5 scale, lower = more constructive), indicating a distribution that spans both constructive and cautious views across the coverage universe.
Strengths
- +Trailing PE of 4.54x is the lowest among the 6 Energy peers tracked, with ONGC at 8.0x, Coal India at 9.4x, GAIL at 14.2x, and Reliance at 22.1x — IOC trades at a significant discount to the sector median.
- +Dividend yield of 7.13% alongside Q4FY26 consolidated profit up 57–81% year-on-year and a declared final dividend of ₹1.25 per share for Q4FY26.
- +ROE of 20.97% ranks 3rd among 6 Energy peers — above Reliance (9.14%), GAIL (8.69%), and ONGC (12.7%), though behind Coal India (28.12%) and BPCL (28.47%).
- +Revenue growth of 6.7% over 5 years with a recent Q4 21% EPS beat versus analyst estimates, suggesting near-term earnings momentum has exceeded modelled expectations.
Weaknesses
- −Debt-to-equity of 58.4 is structurally elevated for a non-bank company; FCF has been positive in only 2 of the available fiscal years, limiting the company's ability to reduce leverage organically.
- −Earnings and quality consistency is low: consistency score of 39/100, ROE above 15% in only 2 of available years — the earnings improvement may reflect cyclical refining margin expansion rather than a durable shift in capital returns.
- −Quality score of 49 ranks 4th of 6 Energy peers, and the forward PE of 7.90 versus trailing PE of 4.54 implies the consensus model embeds a meaningful earnings decline from the current Q4 level.
- −Price is below both the 50-DMA (₹141.68) and 200-DMA (₹151.32); the stock has declined 22.41% over 3 months despite positive earnings news, with support at ₹130.22–₹130.53 and resistance at ₹148.34–₹149.30.
Open questions
- ?Does the forward PE of 7.90 versus trailing PE of 4.54 reflect a consensus view that FY26 refining margins are unsustainably high, and what historical refining margin cycle data supports or contradicts that assumption?
- ?Given that FCF has been positive in only 2 of the available years and D/E stands at 58.4, how has IOC historically managed capex cycles and refinancing during periods of margin compression?
- ?Is the 22.41% price decline over 3 months driven by sector-wide PSU oil marketing company re-rating, crude price movements, or company-specific concerns — and how do BPCL and HPCL's 3-month price changes compare?
- ?How durable is the 7.13% dividend yield given that dividend payments require sustained FCF generation, and what proportion of the declared dividend is covered by free cash flow versus balance-sheet borrowing?
Peer comparison: Energy
Ranks 4 of 6 on quality| Symbol | Name | P/E | ROE | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IOC | Indian Oil Corporation Ltd.You're viewing | 4.5 | +21.0% | 49 |
| Industry avg | across 5 peers | 11.7 | +17.4% | 47 |
| COALINDIA | Coal India Ltd. | 9.4 | +28.1% | 77 |
| BPCL | Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd. | 4.9 | +28.5% | 55 |
| ONGC | Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. | 8.0 | +12.7% | 53 |
| RELIANCE | Reliance Industries Ltd. | 22.1 | +9.1% | 32 |
| GAIL | GAIL (India) Ltd. | 14.2 | +8.7% | 19 |
Technical state
Current price
₹140.24
SMA 50
₹141.68
SMA 200
₹151.32
RSI (14)
47.3 (neutral)
From 52w high
-24.9%
1Y return
+4.3%
3M return
-22.4%
50-DMA
Below
200-DMA
Below
Algorithmic support levels
Algorithmic resistance levels
Risk flags
- highDebt-to-equity of 58.4 is exceptionally elevated for a non-financial company. With FCF positive in only 2 of the available years and debt trend classified as flat, the balance sheet carries substantial refinancing exposure and limited deleveraging momentum.
- highEarnings and capital-generation consistency is weak: ROE above 15% in only 2 of available years, FCF positive in only 2 of available years, and a consistency score of 39/100. The reported 5-year earnings CAGR of 78.1% is better understood alongside a profit margin of 5.37% — a state-owned refiner operating on thin, government-influenced margins.
- mediumPrice of ₹140.24 is below both the 50-DMA (₹141.68) and 200-DMA (₹151.32), with a 24.85% drawdown from the 52-week high and a 22.41% decline over the past 3 months. Nearest support cluster is at ₹130.22–₹130.53.
- mediumQuality score of 49 ranks 4th of 6 peers in the Energy sector, behind Coal India (77), BPCL (55), and ONGC (53). PE ranking is 1st (lowest PE in the peer set at 4.54x), but low PE alone does not compensate for below-median quality positioning.
Cross-section contradictions
- Forward PE of 7.90 is 74% above the trailing PE of 4.54, implying consensus earnings forecasts embed a material earnings decline from the current base — while Q4FY26 headlines report consolidated net profit surging 57–81% year-on-year with a 21% EPS beat versus analyst estimates.
- News sentiment is positive (5 positive vs 1 negative out of 8 items) and Q4 results have been materially above consensus, yet the stock has declined 22.41% over the past 3 months and is 24.85% below its 52-week high — divergence between reported fundamentals and price action.
For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. VivaTrades is not a SEBI-registered Investment Adviser or Research Analyst. Market data sourced from public feeds; consult a registered adviser before any investment decision.
Fundamentals & technicals: refreshed 25 Jun 2026 · refreshed daily at 01:00 IST
AI synthesis (narrative, snapshot, strengths/weaknesses, peer ranking): generated 1 Jun 2026 · rotates through NIFTY 500 every ~5 days