InterGlobe Aviation Ltd.
Services · NSE
52-week range
₹3,895 – ₹6,233
From 52w high
-27.4%
RSI (14)
53.1
vs SMA 50 / 200
↑ 50 · ↓ 200
IndiGo (INDIGO) is India's largest airline by market share, currently trading at ₹4,522.7 — 18.1% below its level one year ago and 27.4% below its 52-week high, with the stock sitting 13.4% under its 200-day moving average. Trailing PE stands at 54.3 on a profit margin of just 3.79%, while the forward PE of 24.4 reflects market expectations of a significant earnings recovery. Debt-to-equity of 866.46 (rising trend) and a 5-year earnings CAGR of -77.6% characterize a capital-intensive business with thin margins and historically volatile bottom-line performance.
- ✓FCF was positive in 4 of the available years, indicating the airline has generated operating cash flow in most periods despite significant capital commitments.
- ✓Forward PE of 24.4 is 55% below the trailing PE of 54.3, suggesting the analyst community models a material step-up in earnings — the gap between trailing and forward multiples is one of the widest in the peer set.
- ✓Mean analyst rating of 1.56 across 25 analysts (1–5 scale, lower = more constructive) reflects a concentration of coverage toward the constructive end of the scale, despite recent broker target cuts.
- ✓Revenue growth over 5 years of 6.2% shows the top line has expanded through a period that included pandemic disruptions, capacity additions, and fuel cost volatility.
- ✗Debt-to-equity of 866.46 with a rising debt trend represents extreme balance-sheet leverage; even modest revenue disruptions (fuel spikes, demand shocks) can translate quickly into cash flow stress at this gearing level.
- ✗5-year earnings growth of -77.6% and a consistency score of 47 out of 100 reflect a bottom line that has been chronically difficult to sustain; ROE data is unavailable for most of the measurement window, limiting visibility into capital efficiency.
- ✗Stock is 13.4% below the 200-DMA and has declined 18.1% over 12 months; the 52-week drawdown of 27.4% is accompanied by concurrent broker target reductions from Emkay (–13%) and UBS (–10%) and a downgrade from UBS.
- ✗Profit margin of 3.79% is thin even by airline-industry standards, leaving earnings highly sensitive to input cost (fuel, forex, maintenance) and demand variability — any margin compression directly threatens the earnings recovery that the forward PE implies.
- ·UBS downgraded INDIGO and cut its price target by 10%, citing key risks, while Emkay retained a constructive stance but cut its target by 13% — two major brokers reducing targets simultaneously within the same month is a notable shift in near-term sentiment.
- ·The Head of Global Sales, Vinay Malhotra, resigned in early May 2026, continuing a pattern of senior leadership departures that multiple outlets described as ongoing churn; the stock declined on the news.
- ·Q3 FY2026 results coverage was neutral in tone according to sentiment classification, suggesting results neither materially beat nor missed market expectations — the market reaction has been shaped more by the leadership and broker news than by earnings outcomes.
- ?Does the forward PE of 24.4 reflect a structural improvement in IndiGo's unit economics (lower lease costs, better yield management) or does it primarily embed a rebound from a cyclically depressed earnings base — and how sensitive is that assumption to fuel price and rupee movements?
- ?How much of the D/E of 866.46 consists of aircraft operating lease liabilities under Ind AS 116, and what is the net debt position excluding right-of-use assets — does the adjusted leverage profile materially change the solvency picture?
- ?Is the recent senior leadership attrition (global sales head departure) indicative of strategic disagreement about growth plans (international expansion, pricing strategy) or routine turnover, and what has been the pattern of departures over the past 12 months?
- ?Given that aviation is a regulated, capital-intensive sector where margins are structurally thin, what combination of yield improvement, capacity discipline, and cost reduction would be required to sustain the earnings level implied by the current forward PE — and has management provided visibility on those levers?
PE
54.3
Forward PE
24.4
ROE
—
Profit margin
+3.8%
D/E
866.46
Dividend yield
+0.2%
Quality score
6/100
ROE 5y above 15%
2/5 yrs
FCF 5y positive
4/5 yrs
For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. VivaTrades is not a SEBI-registered Investment Adviser or Research Analyst. Market data sourced from public feeds; consult a registered adviser before any investment decision.Analysis generated 10 May 2026.