Hindalco Industries Ltd.
NSE: HINDALCOHindalco Industries Ltd.: A 30-second snapshot
Hindalco Industries (₹1,010) is a large-cap aluminium and copper producer trading above its 200-DMA (₹906.51) but 4.9% below its 50-DMA (₹1,059.50), up 58.6% over the past year and 14.1% off its 52-week high. Trailing PE stands at 16.85 against a forward PE of 9.39, while profit margin is 4.87% and debt-to-equity is 72.6 with a rising debt trend. ROE of 10.29% has never cleared 15% in any tracked year and ranks 5th of 6 in the Metals peer group.
P/E
16.8
Forward P/E
9.4
ROE
+10.3%
Debt / Equity
72.60
Profit Margin
+4.9%
Div. Yield
+0.5%
5Y ROE > 15%
0/5
5Y FCF > 0
3/5
Quality
38/100
News
8 headlines · 3 positive · 2 negative
Hindalco shares decline 2% as Q4 profit falls 51%. Here's what Nuvama and other brokerages said - The Economic Times
The Economic Times
Hindalco, NALCO Shares Fall over 4% As LME Aluminum Prices Slide - NDTV Profit
NDTV Profit
This Just In: Analysts Are Boosting Their Hindalco Industries Limited (NSE:HINDALCO) Outlook for This Year - simplywall.st
simplywall.st
Hindalco, Nalco rise up to 5% on rising global aluminium prices - Moneycontrol.com
Moneycontrol.com
HINDALCO Share Price Today - Hindalco Industries on NSE/BSE - scanx.trade
scanx.trade
Recent context
- ·Q4 FY26 profit fell 51% YoY to approximately ₹2,597 crore on record quarterly revenue of ₹78,133 crore, with the decline attributed in part to one-time costs; multiple brokerages commented on the result (Economic Times, 2026-05-25).
- ·LME aluminium price slides triggered a 4%+ fall in HINDALCO and NALCO shares in mid-June 2026, highlighting the direct transmission of global commodity price moves to the stock (NDTV Profit, 2026-06-16).
- ·At least one analyst note cited by simplywall.st (2026-05-27) described upward revisions to earnings outlook for the year, creating a divergence between near-term headline results and forward estimates embedded in the 9.39 forward PE.
Strengths
- +Revenue compounded at 20.4% over 5 years, indicating consistent top-line scale expansion across the business cycle.
- +Price is up 58.6% over 1 year and sits 10.9% above the 200-DMA (₹906.51), reflecting a sustained medium-term price recovery from prior lows.
- +Forward PE of 9.39 represents a 44% discount to trailing PE of 16.85, suggesting the market is pricing in a material improvement in earnings relative to the trailing period.
- +FCF was positive in 3 of 5 tracked years, indicating that the business generates cash in most operating environments despite elevated leverage.
Weaknesses
- −5-year earnings CAGR of -50.9% demonstrates persistent bottom-line deterioration even as revenues grew at 20.4% over the same period, pointing to cost, margin, or non-operating headwinds compounding over time.
- −Debt-to-equity of 72.6 with a rising debt trend and a 4.87% net profit margin creates a narrow buffer; the consistency score of 26 and quality score of 31 both rank near the bottom of the tracked universe.
- −Q4 net profit fell 51% YoY and LME aluminium price slides drove a subsequent 4%+ intraday share decline in June 2026, reinforcing commodity-price sensitivity on an already thin margin base.
- −ROE of 10.29% ranks 5th of 6 in the Metals peer group and has not crossed 15% in any year on record, indicating return generation lags sector peers with stronger capital efficiency (HINDZINC at 76.94%, JSWSTEEL at 27.26%).
Open questions
- ?Does the 44% gap between trailing PE (16.85) and forward PE (9.39) reflect a credible near-term earnings recovery, or does the five-year trend of earnings compression make that recovery assumption fragile?
- ?How much of the 58.6% 1-year price gain is attributable to a re-rating of Novelis (the overseas subsidiary) versus the domestic aluminium and copper businesses, and are those drivers durable?
- ?With debt-to-equity at 72.6 and a rising debt trend, what level of LME aluminium or copper price decline would cause interest-coverage ratios to deteriorate materially?
- ?ROE has not crossed 15% in any tracked year; is that a structural feature of the capital-intensive aluminium smelting business model, or is there a peer (e.g. HINDZINC at 76.94%) that demonstrates a higher-return path in Indian metals?
Peer comparison: Metals
Ranks 5 of 6 on quality| Symbol | Name | P/E | ROE | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HINDALCO | Hindalco Industries Ltd.You're viewing | 16.8 | +10.3% | 31 |
| Industry avg | across 5 peers | 26.0 | +27.2% | 43 |
| HINDZINC | Hindustan Zinc Ltd. | 17.2 | +76.9% | 72 |
| TATASTEEL | Tata Steel Ltd. | 23.0 | +11.2% | 47 |
| JSWSTEEL | JSW Steel Ltd. | 14.2 | +27.3% | 45 |
| JINDALSTEL | Jindal Steel Ltd. | 34.5 | +6.8% | 34 |
| ADANIENT | Adani Enterprises Ltd. | 41.2 | +13.7% | 19 |
Technical state
Current price
₹1,010.00
SMA 50
₹1,059.50
SMA 200
₹906.51
RSI (14)
39.6 (neutral)
From 52w high
-14.1%
1Y return
+58.5%
3M return
+12.6%
50-DMA
Below
200-DMA
Above
Algorithmic support levels
Algorithmic resistance levels
Risk flags
- high5-year earnings CAGR of -50.9% against 5-year revenue CAGR of +20.4% reflects severe bottom-line erosion: substantial revenue growth over the period has not translated into profit compounding.
- highDebt-to-equity of 72.6 is exceptionally elevated for a non-financial industrial. With a net profit margin of 4.87% and a rising debt trend, the balance sheet carries significant leverage exposure if commodity prices or interest rates move adversely.
- mediumQ4 net profit fell 51% YoY (reported 2026-05-25 via Economic Times), with LME aluminium price slides cited in a subsequent June 2026 headline causing shares to fall over 4%. These events reinforce the existing multi-year earnings compression trend.
- mediumROE of 10.29% has never cleared 15% in any tracked year and ranks 5th of 6 in the Metals peer group (HINDZINC: 76.94%, JSWSTEEL: 27.26%, TATASTEEL: 11.16%, ADANIENT: 13.66%, JINDALSTEL: 6.77%). Quality score of 31 ranks 5th of 6.
- low1-year price change data is unavailable for all five sector peers, making sector-relative price performance ranking unreliable. News sample totals 8 articles, limiting sentiment signal reliability.
Cross-section contradictions
- Price is up 58.55% over 1 year and trades above the 200-DMA (₹906.51), yet the 5-year earnings CAGR is -50.9% and ROE has never exceeded 15% in any tracked year — the price re-rating diverges sharply from the multi-year fundamental trajectory.
- Forward PE of 9.39 sits 44% below trailing PE of 16.85, embedding a large earnings-recovery assumption into the current valuation, set against five consecutive years of declining earnings and a 51% YoY profit drop in the most recent quarter.
For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. VivaTrades is not a SEBI-registered Investment Adviser or Research Analyst. Market data sourced from public feeds; consult a registered adviser before any investment decision.
Fundamentals & technicals: refreshed 24 Jun 2026 · refreshed daily at 01:00 IST
AI synthesis (narrative, snapshot, strengths/weaknesses, peer ranking): generated 21 Jun 2026 · rotates through NIFTY 500 every ~5 days